566: The Investment Trend Almost Nobody Is Paying Attention To W/ Doomberg

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Most investors spend an enormous amount of time thinking about interest rates, inflation, earnings, and the latest AI breakthroughs.

But very few stop to think about the one input that makes all of those things possible in the first place: energy.

We tend to assume that energy will always be there when we need it—that supply will simply keep growing as demand increases. History makes it feel inevitable.

But it isn’t.

One of the most fascinating aspects of today’s AI revolution is that it isn’t just creating demand for more software or faster chips.

It is creating an unprecedented demand for electricity, natural gas, transmission infrastructure, and the physical systems required to power massive computing capacity.

In other words, AI doesn’t exist in the cloud. It exists on an energy grid.

That has enormous implications—not only for AI itself, but for inflation, industrial competitiveness, geopolitics, and long-term investment opportunities.

In this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast, I sit down with the team behind Doomberg, one of the most widely read independent research publications covering energy, finance, and geopolitics.

Our conversation explores why energy may be the most underappreciated driver of the global economy, why many popular assumptions about the energy transition deserve another look, how AI is reshaping energy demand, what Europe, China, and the United States are getting right—and wrong—and where investors should be paying attention over the next decade.

Whether you agree with every conclusion or not, I think you’ll find the discussion thought-provoking and a useful framework for understanding some of the biggest forces shaping the investment landscape.

Listen on Spotify:

Transcript

Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at [email protected].

Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with The Wealth Formula podcast. Today, I want to talk to you about something very interesting, something that I feel like, yeah, you hear about it, but not a lot of people are paying a lot of attention to. You know, most investors spend enormous amount of time thinking about interest rates, inflation, earnings, and the latest AI breakthroughs, and of course, they should be.

But very few stop to think about the one input that makes all of those things possible in the first place, and that’s energy. We tend to assume that energy’s always gonna be there when we need it, that supply will simply keep growing as demand increases. Because historically, that’s what’s happened. It makes it feel inevitable.

But it isn’t. One of the most fascinating aspect of today’s AI revolution is that it isn’t just creating demand for more software or faster chips. It’s actually creating an unprecedented demand for electricity, natural gas, transmission infrastructure, and the physical systems required to power massive computing capacity.

In other words, AI doesn’t exist in the cloud. It actually exists on the energy grid, and that has enormous implications not only for AI, but for inflation, industrial competitiveness, geopolitics, and frankly, long-term investment opportunities. So this week I got a chance to sit down with the team at Doomberg, which is one of the most widely read independent research publications covering energy, finance, and geopolitics out there.

So in our conversation, we explore why energy might be one of the most underappreciated drivers of the global economy, why popular assumptions about the energy transition deserve another look, and how AI is reshaping energy demand not only in, uh, United States, but, uh, Europe, China, and, uh, the rest of the world.

And the bottom line is the question it becomes where investors should be paying attention to over the next decade. So this is the kind of stuff you will learn about in this discussion. Really interesting talk. Hope you enjoy it. We’ll have it right after these messages. Hey, everyone. If you haven’t done so, make sure you sign up for Investor Club.

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Welcome back to the show, everyone. Today I am interviewing Doomberg. Uh, if you are watching this, you see a chicken on the, uh, screen. Uh, and that is because Doomberg is an anonymous team behind one of the most widely read finance newsletters on Substacks, uh, that’s, uh, that covers energy, finance, and geopolitics.

Uh, they draw on decades of experience, heavy industry, private equity, hard sciences, uh, and they tend to challenge conventional thinking on energy markets, inflation, and the global economy. And, uh, yeah, so their independent data-driven analysis, uh, has really gotten them a great reputation for identifying major macro trends before they become mainstream.

Uh, so welcome, Doomberg. How are you?

Ah, great to be with you. Looking forward to it.

Yeah, this is the first time I’ve spoken to an anonymous chicken, but let’s start with this. Uh, you often say, um, uh, your, you know, in your substack that energy is the foundation of the economy. Why do so many investors still underestimate its importance?

And maybe you can tell us, you know, how important it is.

Yeah. So one of our taglines is that energy is life. It, it takes energy to sustain the human body. Um, it takes energy to sustain an environment in which the human body thrives. In the scientific world, this is known as achieving thermal comfort. And your standard of living is literally defined by how much energy you get to waste.

You ha– In order to impose order on your local environment, you have to waste heat. It’s second law of thermodynamics, which you probably remember from college, your college physics classes, whatever the minimum recommendation was for you on your journey. If you have a shortage of energy, everybody notices it, and if you have a huge abundance of energy, people treat it like it’s a regular commodity.

Its fundamental role doesn’t change, it’s just your perception of it, uh, that, that changes.

And so our specialty is to begin with energy

vis-a-vis finance, the economy, geopolitics, because energy explains virtually everything if you drill down deep enough And if you drill down deep enough and then look back up, you can begin to predict where things have to, have to go on the surface, if you get what I’m saying.

And so, um, because energy is misunderstood and mostly ignored because traditional economics treats it as just another commodity, its impact on finance, geopolitics, and the economy is underappreciated. And that is the market inefficiency that Doomberg occupies as we’ve built our business, um, over the last five years.

Let’s drill down on that some more. Um, obviously, you know, it’s interesting because these days, um, um, you know, not, not even speaking of this as a political issue, but, you know, so many people vilify fossil fuels, for example. But in reality, fossil fuels are, um, yeah, they– it’s what brought us out of poverty, you know, across this world throughout time.

And so, you know, energy is obviously what is increasing our, uh, standard of living. But i-in the context of today, we have some particularly unusual challenges when it comes to energy, specifically AI. So how does that add to this thesis?

Sure. So, um, you said a couple of things there I’d like to unpack. So first of all, you know, so-called fossil fuels and our ability to get off them.

Um, not sure when this po-podcast will publish, but the day after we record it, the Statistical Review of World Energy will be releasing its, uh, twenty twenty-six edition free for everyone to see. And you can go in and see just what a percent of total global primary energy consumption is still met by coal, oil, and natural gas, and it’ll be in the high eighties.

Um, that’s because energy is additive. So because the amount of energy you get to waste defines your standard of living, and every human everywhere wants a higher standard of living, including every listener to this podcast, the demand for energy is up and to the right. All energy sources are additive. No energy source is wasted.

Fossil fuels, we prefer to call them hydrocarbons, um, have a very high energy density and are relatively easy to transport, which means you can, you know, drill them in one place and consume them in another. And, um, virtually every aspect of our lives are powered by fossil fuels today. Just to give, like, one example with this war in Iran, um, I will get to AI once I’m done with this.

Um, w- in the war in Iran, you know what happened, right? So they closed the Strait of Hormuz, and everybody panics, and correctly. And, um, the G7 gets together to have an emergency meeting When was the last time the G7 got together to have an emergency meeting about a shortage of solar panels? They, they don’t.

Oil is still absolutely critical to the beating heart of the economy. Um, now to AI, um, there’s a race going on right now. One of our mental models internally, and, and I probably should have led with this, but we apply lateral thinking to all of these subject matters, and, uh, we speak of axioms and mental models.

One of our mental models is that the human endeavor is infinite compute. Ray Kurzweil’s vision of exponentially growing compute for compute’s sake really is one of those axiomatic mental models of the world that just works. A mental model works if it makes predictions, if it explains the past and it makes predictions about the future.

And AI is the next evolution of the Kurzweilian journey towards infinite compute. And right now we have a, a arms race between the US and China to achieve AGI, you know, artificial general intelligence, to create God in a box, and that is being powered by two hydrocarbons. In the US, it is predominantly being powered by natural gas, which the US has

an enormous supply of, and I should say more correctly, it has invented the technologies and invested the

assets needed to take advantage of that supply.

So natural gas is powering the US lane of the AI race. And in China it’s being powered by coal, um, an enormous amount of coal. China alone consumes half the world’s coal, and it produces electricity with it. So forget all the happy talk about China solar, renewables and hydro and all this other stuff. The AI race in China is being powered by coal And the AI race in the US is being powered by natural gas.

And there are all manner of counterintuitive conclusions that flow from those axiomatic observations which form the genesis of most of what we write about.

When you speak about China, uh, one of the things that is interesting, and I think you guys have brought this up, is that, you know, there’s this, uh, perception that they’re the leader in clean energy, but they, they are, they just want all kinds of energy.

That’s their paradigm. That’s just like full, you know, put on the, uh, you know, pedal to the metal all energy, right? Is that– And that’s different from us.

There’s just a more cynical interpretation which we, which we mostly subscribe to, um, which is that China convinced the West to disarm, especially Europe, and, um, hooked it onto the IV drip of solar and wind technologies that China dominates, knowing that these would be suboptimal.

And, and it has to install enough of it on the home front to make it look plausible that they’re doing it too. Um, but in reality, um, China alone emits more carbon than basically the rest of the world combined, and it is burning dirty coal at an enormous rate, and no amount of solar panels are going to abate what China is doing.

And so the US, l- you know, distinguished from Europe, um, has become an energy superpower in its own right by investing in shale. The Exxons and the Chevrons of the world have, um, in a way maintained US geopolitical power. Um, and so the fact that the US is now the largest oil producer by a wide margin, the largest natural gas producer by an extremely wide margin, and also in possession of one of, if not the world’s largest coal reserves, um, means that it still has a seat at the geopolitical table with China, whereas Europe, which it’s about to find out the hard way, as Volkswagen just demonstrated through its massive layoff campaign, um, does not.

You mentioned Europe sort of potentially being hoodwinked by China and their push towards, uh, clean energy. Can you talk about Europe as a cautionary tale for energy policy?

Oh, a hundred percent. Um, talk about red meat. So, um, just to give you some numbers. So just, like, once you hear these kind of numbers, you, you take a s- step back and say, “Oh.”

So the, the, the statistical review comes out tomorrow. We have our own internal modeling. We have a sense for where these numbers are going. Um, our guess is that, that the numbers will show that the European Union, the 27 member states of the EU, which notably excludes Great Britain and Norway, who still produce some hydrocarbons.

Um, the 27 member states of the EU consume 38 exajoules of hydrocarbons and produce about five And that means they import 33 exajoules of hydrocarbons. Now, when you import other people’s energy, you’re paying the cost of capital to every entity that touches that energy from the wellhead to, to where it’s consumed.

Um, just to give you a sense of what an exajoule is, all of the world’s primary energy consumption is about 600 exajoules. So the European Union imports 5% of all of the world’s energy just in its hydrocarbon bill, the 27 member states. Um, another way to look at it is the hydrocarbon import bill of the EU is the s- is the size of the entirety of US natural gas production, all 110 billion cubic feet per day of gas that’s coming up in the US.

And so this is a kneecapping of heavy industry. You can’t make cars, you can’t make cement, you can’t make concrete, you can’t, you can’t run big diesel trucks. You, y- I mean, you can, you can do all these things. You just pay more than everyone else to do it. And, and the brutal nature of the economic competition against China, which floods the market with all of this stuff, means that over time you don’t have steel production in your country anymore.

You don’t have automotive production in your country anymore. And for a while, for decades, the European Union compensated for this because it had all of these arteries of pipelines connecting to the former Soviet Union, modern-day Russia as the surviving state of the, of the Soviet Union. Um, so just to benchmark you, um, before the war in Ukraine, roughly about a third of Europe’s hydrocarbon bill came via those pipelines from Russia at very affordable prices, almost indistinguishable from domestic production.

Do you know what I’m saying? So the Russians provided to them for cheap. It was– They were getting euros, hard currency. And so you had this, um, 14 BCF per day of natural gas coming from Russia into Europe, roughly. Um, and suddenly now all of that gas has to come from liquefied natural gas imports from places like the US and Qatar, which is three to four times more expensive.

And so you see Volkswagen eliminating one out of every six jobs That is the downstream consequence of the upstream folly of bad energy policy. Now, Germany made it worse. Not only did– not only are they currently at war with their former primary energy supplier, whatever your thoughts on the war in Ukraine, um, they also shut down a, one of the world’s most sophisticated, perfectly operable nucle-nuclear power plants voluntarily.

They, they impaled themselves. Um, they, they cut out their cheapest immortal assets that produce electricity, and they cut the ties to the cheap natural gas they were getting from Russia, and they replaced nuclear with intermittent wind and solar, depending on China for those assets. But also they’re just expensive, and I can explain why.

This is one of the great misconceptions, one of the great lies of, of the green energy movement. Um, and also then they rep- Uh, so you, you trade nuclear for intermittent wind and solar, and you trade cheap Russian gas for expensive American LNG. America likes that. Um, Volkswagen doesn’t, and here we are.

What is the, uh, direction of the economy because of where we’re at with energy, where Europe’s at, where we’re at, where China’s at?

Yeah.

Where are we headed?

So depends where you are in the world. So when, if you, if by we you mean the United States, the United States is a global energy gigapower, and if a shortage of energy is bad, what is an abundance of energy?

It’s good. Um, so for example, um, natural gas in the US, there’s so much of it we can’t give it away in parts of the country. What, why do I mean– You know, how does this situation evolve? This sit-situation evolved because the shale revolution in the US not only made the US a major oil producer, it totally transformed global natural gas markets.

Why? In the major shales, some of the major shales, the big major shales like the Permian in Texas, um, when you drill, you get crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in significant quantities. So natural gas is a byproduct. If you’re out to drill for crude, this is where our industrial experience comes in, having competed against many byproduct producers, it’s no fun.

Um, if you’re drilling for crude because the price of crude is artificially high because there’s a cartel in the middle of it, OPEC, who wants to keep the price of oil high, you’re gonna drill for that oil and all this natural gas that comes with it, you just kinda give it away. And so in the Permian Basin, for most of 2026, the price of natural gas has been negative.

People will pay you to take it because it’s in the way of getting to the oil, and natural gas as a gas is a little harder to, to manage. And so until the midstream assets, all the pipelines and all that stuff are built, you kinda just wanna get rid of it. This is why we’re seeing a data center boom in, in West Texas.

Just for people, including me, I d- you know, that don’t know sort of the intricacies of the, you know, the natural gas, why we can’t use natural gas and, um, you know, why we’re giving it… Can you, can you-

Sure. So-

Give us a little context.

We use an enormous amount of natural gas. Um, practically, I dunno, let’s just call it round numbers, half the homes are heated with natural gas, um, in the country, half the homes cook with natural gas in the country.

It’s probably a little lower than that but, um… But most importantly, an enormous amount of electricity is produced with natural gas, and critically within industry you have these facilities known as cogeneration facilities where natural gas comes in and steam and electricity go out, and that steam is used in heavy industry, chemical plants, steel plants, pick your favorite.

Like you need steel, you need steam to do work in these, uh, facilities as well. And so you have these giant cogeneration facilities dotting the country. And so if you’re paying dirt cheap amounts for your natural gas, you can produce your chemicals, you can produce your cars, you can produce your steel, um, because you’re getting cheap electricity with it and cheap steam, all the things you need to run heavy industry.

Um, if you’re gonna build a data center, you build it in the Permian. Gas is negative there. People will pay you to take the fuel that you need to run your data center. How are you gonna compete against that if you’re in Europe, where you’re paying landed LNG prices for natural gas? So natural gas is right at the front end of this economy.

Just to benchmark you again, um, if the global primary energy budget is six hundred exajoules, thirty-five percent of that is oil and like thirty percent of that is natural gas. It’s huge. It’s just as important as oil, and in some cases more important, and it’s clean burning. So you can cook in your house with natural gas and you don’t really worry about ventilation.

You wouldn’t burn coal in your house without ventilation. That’s why your barbecues are outside, right? Um, but natural gas is so clean that it powers your furnace, it powers your, your oven. Well, it powers electricity plants, it powers cogeneration facilities, it powers data centers. Um, it’s, it’s– The US is in possession of the largest bounty of cleanest burning, cheapest hydrocarbons the world has ever seen, which is wildly under-reported or appreciated because of this fascination with climate change and carbon counting and all the things that we think are just a giant Chinese psych op.

Um, the US didn’t fall for it. Europe did. Here we are.

So let’s talk about, um, energy prices. Obviously right now, you know, with the, uh, whole I- Iran issue, energy costs went way up. What is your view about energy costs over the next-

Sure …

few years? I mean, I think just in terms of the things that are out there right now.

I mean, presumably this Straits of Hormuz issue is transitory. And then you mentioned OPEC. I mean, there are some issues with OPEC. You have the United Arab Emirates leaving there. I don’t know how long it takes Venezuelan oil to get online. But tell me what, what your view on energy costs over the next couple years is, and, and I guess as a corollary to that, you know, uh, inflation as well.

Yeah. So here’s where we’ll take a turn for the perhaps unexpected. As wildly bullish as we are on supply, that means we’re bearish on price. Look, in the long run, this is really important for investors to internalize, and we’ll talk about this. Um, in the long run, you know, the long-term real price of all commodities is lower.

Um, you have to have as a mental model that there is an infinite supply of oil and gas underground. People aren’t comfortable traditionally thinking about concepts like infinity. For modeling purposes, assume we’ll never run out Over time, those same Exxons and Chevrons and Saudi Aramcos invent new technologies, are grinding away at technological improvement to the point where, um, if you take the price of oil in real terms, it goes ever cheaper.

Just think about the amount of inflation we’ve all experienced, and yet gasoline is three bucks and change on my way into the office today per gallon where I live. A lot of that is taxes. You know, gasoline in the harbor is, you know, wholesale is less than three bucks a gallon for sure. It’s in the mid twos.

This is in 2026 dollars. It’s as cheap as, as it was back in 1985 Um, the oil and gas companies are technological powerhouses, and they are giant deflationary machines. Now, there’s a subset of investors, probably a fair number of them listening to you, who have the desire to invest in commodities. Why? It’s real.

It feels less fraud-y. You know, there’s… Nobody believes the valuations of these AI unicorns and the data center bubble and all of this stuff. And so, like, that’s real. That’s tangible. I wanna buy copper. I wanna buy silver. I wanna buy nickel. I wanna buy oil. I wanna buy gas. The only one that you should think about owning for savings reasons is gold, ’cause gold is not a commodity.

It’s the only one that isn’t a commodity. But all other commodities, the long-term real price of them is lower. So why do I wanna own that? I don’t. Um, copper, lower. Oil, lower. Natural gas, lower. You’ll see spikes. Fade those spikes. Um, this is always the advice we give our subscribers. Now, there are parts of that industry that you want to be long.

You wanna be long anybody that can enable more energy production, because the greatest bet you can make is that humanity’s energy consumption will continue to grow up and to the right. There is no, um, efficiency. There is no just making do with what we have. The human endeavor is up and to the right. So we are very interested in companies that hold the technologies that unleash new energy production, that bring it to market, midstream players, for example.

Um, or you’re a company that is leveraged to very cheap energy, and you make widgets that you could sell at a global price. We’re interested in that too. But what you don’t wanna do is own the commodity. And in rare circumstances, you don’t wanna own the direct producer. You wanna own the royalty company that’s leasing the land that gets paid per barrel produced, or you wanna own, you know, um, you know, classic picks and shovels during a gold rush.

Um, you, you know, owning the commodity itself is, is a bit of a sucker’s bet.

So commodity prices go down, and we also know AI has a significant deflationary element to it. Does that mean that as we move forward in the next couple years, that we should see inflation numbers go down?

You also have the fact that China has wildly overbuilt most of these supply chains, which itself is very deflationary.

Um, so, um, you have, you know, on the other side of that equation, US fiscal discipline issues and just the sheer volume of printing that’s going on. And then you have the stock market bubble, which understandably people are hesitant to go long. We don’t own any equities, uh, of consequence. I, I should disclose that, um- Our, our personal strategy in life is to earn money in fiat, um, save money in real assets like gold and land and that kind of stuff, and then, uh, to invest privately where we can impact the outcome.

So I’m not a big stock market connoisseur or stock picker, and to the extent that people use our research to affect their own investment decisions, that’s on them. Um, but certainly our research affects our private investing, um, you know, where you wanna place your bets based on these trends. But, um, to your question on inflation, um, just watch the price of gold, um, because again, I get back to what is in your denominator.

Your question– implied in your question was the US dollar and how much can my US dollar buy? Um, and that is a, you know, a complex equation with many variables. Um, but there are significant deflationary forces, including an abundance of cheap energy, excess factory capacity in China that the world is just now beginning to recognize, um, or feel the consequences of, I guess I should say.

Um, and, uh, and this AI revolution basically driving the price of human intelligence, the, the work of human intelligence to zero. Um, I, I’m deeply involved in AI in my personal and professional life. We’ve done some private investing in this space. It’s mind-blowing. It’s coming. There’s no avoiding it. Um, I’m sure you, you play around with it too.

Um, but just to give you a sense of like where inflation is, is, is headed, um, for $15,000 you can buy an incredible plug-in hybrid electric vehicle from a Chinese producer that goes, you know, 2,000 kilometers between refills because the battery is that good and it’s well-appointed and you would, you wouldn’t be embarrassed to drive it for $15,000 in 2026 money.

Um, we speak of course, of, you know, the, uh, BYDs of the world that are just cranking out millions of cars from these giant factories that would… Well, when the CEO of Ford went, came back and said, “We can’t compete against that.” Um, and Europe is finding that out. Canada is gonna find that out because Canada is allowing the import of, um, of Chinese electric vehicles, um, after Carney’s trip there.

So, you know, there’s a lot of deflationary forces. It’s easy to look at the US fiscal situation and say, well- printer go brrr, hyperinflation, Venezuela, um, Weimar, pick your favorite. And we’ve been susceptible to such fears in the past, um, but, you know, that’s why we hedge the way we do.

Given, uh, the deflationary pressures, I guess the question that, uh, I’m wondering is where you guys are projecting interest rates to be in twelve to twenty-four months based on all the things that we’re talking about.

Interest rates are notoriously hard to forecast, and, uh, we, we, we typically don’t do it. Um, if you pushed me, um, all of this hawkish talk is a veneer, and, um, the Fed will have to manage the long end of the curve because the wall of refinancing confronting Bessent and team is, uh, substantial. We’ve developed a few long shot, off-the-wall observations about this, including the SpaceX IPO, but, but, um, that’s probably a punt too far for an introductory interview with your audience.

Um, but, um, but I think, look, um, both Yellen and now Bessent have, uh, shortened the maturity of outstanding U.S. debt to the point where U.S. debt is highly sensitive to short-term interest rates. The U.S. fiscal situation is highly sensitive to short-term interest rates, and those need to be managed down. The market will not price them down.

And so once you get yield curve control, it’s risk on for assets, right? Um, and so you have to plug your nose and buy something, um, at some point.

Do you think that we’re entering a decade where hard assets out-outperform financial assets?

Well, I think the question is, um, is a bit… It’s not how we would frame it.

Um, if you view gold as the hard asset that matters the most, you view it as stationary, and then you ask yourself, “How will U.S. dollar behave versus gold in the next decade?” Um, I own a lot of gold, and I hope the U.S. dollar price of gold goes down because I own a lot more assets that are U.S. dollar denominated than gold.

And in a world where gold goes to twenty thousand or thirty thousand, the value of the rest of my portfolio as measured in U.S. dollars, um, necessarily goes down in real terms. And so, um- The sort of equilibrium demand for gold, uh, sorry, for, for US dollars, uh, is kind of a proxy for the strength and the emergence of the US empire.

Um, but, you know, i-if you ask me, um, do I think the price of gold is going higher? I, I do, which is why I own some. I hope it doesn’t go as high as some project it might or fear it might, but I have it as a hedge. Um, it’s not a thesis of mine where like I’m, uh, you know… Because I own other things and they’re all denominated in US dollars, and I would like for the US dollar to be strong ’cause I, I own a fair bit of them.

What asset class today do you think is most mispriced?

I would say that the market is very good. So it’s an interesting question, right? Because we’re entering a period of massive misinformation, disinformation, social media algorithm optimization, AI deepfakes, and it’s becoming incredibly challenging to understand the truth.

We’re actually writing a book on the subject. Um, and in this mess, price is one of the few points of truth. It’s one of the few points where real money is being spent on the outcome. It’s not just some bots on Twitter trying to make you angry or some startup social media platform trying to keep you engaged through, you know, rage bait and all that kind of stuff.

So like during this latest crisis with, um, Iran We, like everyone else, assumed oil would go to 150, 200, um, and it didn’t. And a few days in, when it didn’t, when, when it looked like the top was in at around 125, well, there were two ways to go. You could look at that and say, “Gee, the U.S. government is manipulating the price of oil lower,” or you could say, “The oil market knows something I don’t.”

And in hindsight it did, and those prices were true, and a lot of people lost a lot of money listening to what my f- one of my friends would call the hair pullers on Twitter that, like, just around the corner we’re gonna see $200 oil. And then, you know, they, they turn around and they, and they hunch and bunch it.

You know, they, they got a hunch that oil’s going higher and they put on a trade that’s too big, and then oil goes against them, and then they get angry and they go tweet angry things on Twitter. Um, and I think price is truth, and so when you ask me which asset class is the most mispriced, I, I find it difficult to answer because truth is one of the rare places we go…

The price is one of the rare places we go for truth these days. And so-

Okay. Yeah. So let’s, let’s turn that around a little bit and say- Yeah … based on your macro thesis-

Mm-hmm …

where should investors do some research?

Yeah. I would say any, any company that creates a situation where energy is produced and consumed is interesting to us.

So volume plays, not price plays. Um, so classic mainstream plays in the U.S. as, as they build out pipelines and they, they basically, you know, pipelines as a subscription service. Once they’re built, they’re immortal. They collect, they collect their tolls and they financialize away. Um, any American producer that is leveraged to cheap natural gas but gets to sell, uh, on the global market.

So if you had a pure play fertilizer maker, for example. Um, the U.S., the U.S. is a great place to make fertilizer because you need, you know, rough approximation. It’s good to have natural gas when you wanna make fertilizer. Um, anything that is tied to volume. Um, so if, if we were looking at data centers, who’s selling the racks?

There’s gonna be a lot of data centers built. Maybe the big hyperscalers don’t make the money. Uh, maybe the, you know, off balance sheet stuff that Facebook and Oracle and all they’re putting together, maybe you don’t wanna own those. But if you’re selling the cables that go into it or the racks or pick your favorite, you know, consumable thing that is utterly necessary, um, you, you wanna find those kind of plays that are leveraged to volume and then keep a close eye on whether the trend reverses.