056: Fannie Mae’s Chief Economist Speaks: Doug Duncan
It is route important to remember that when I have people on the show, it is purely for educational purposes. I want to expose you to asset classes and hopefully open up a new way of thinking. However, I want to make sure you understand that it does not mean I am endorsing those particular offerings.
To be clear, I do my best to only allow people on the show who I have vetted to some degree. Either I know them or someone that I trust knows them. However, even if I personally trust someone, and they are trustworthy, it doesn’t mean that I like the deal. If you are in my investor club, I am glad to give you my personal opinion. However, that’s really just my opinion, and again, not and endorsement.
Over the years, I have found the hardest part about investing is trying to figure out who to trust. I have come to the conclusion that for me, investing works best when it is network based. What I mean by that is that the sponsor of the particular offering is within my network. You see, No investment opportunity is without risk. However, if you can, to the best of your ability, eliminate bad players, that is about 75% of the battle.
I steer away from not only people who I think are prone to nefarious activity, but also those who I believe do not have their priorities right. Sometimes you can read between the lines and understand what people’s intentions are. Just listen to what they say. Are they trying to do the right thing? Do they focus on investor returns and building a long-term company with happy clients or do they talk about how big they want to get themselves? The latter is an alarming thing for me. That’s not because I think it is bad to be big and successful. Of course not, you’re looking at someone who owns businesses that are big and successful. However, big does not necessarily mean good.
I could say that I want to build a $1 billion real estate empire. If I start with that goal in mind, what do I need to achieve it? I need to buy a lot of real estate with a lot of investor money. Even in markets like we have today, I might stretch a little bit to make sure that I keep buying properties to keep pace with my goal. Do you think that’s good for investors? I don’t.
Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy has been out of the real estate market for over a year. As much as he continues to make offers, the deals that he knows will make his investors happy aren’t there. People are paying too much. I know this personally because my team is getting outbid routinely as well. Now, that doesn’t mean I’ll stop trying. Hopefully something will come to fruition soon enough. When it does, I will bring it to my investors and feel good about letting them participate.
Don’t be impressed by people who are doing ALOT of deals right now. Be concerned. That doesn’t mean there are no deals in the market, but they are limited for sure.
On the other hand, try not to get the chicken little syndrome either. If you see a deal and it’s a good deal and you know what you are doing, don’t be afraid to buy. There is no such thing as a risk free investment. But with hard assets, it’s kind of nice because they usually come with some financials. Numbers like net operating income over the past two years, don’t lie. In this market, the confident but conservative will prevail. If you sit on your hands and don’t even try, you might also miss some opportunities.
The real estate market, in particular, is confusing the heck out of sophisticated investors these days because of the unusual state of the economy. So, who better to speak to about this than Fannie Mae Chief Economist, Doug Duncan? Tune into this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast and listen to our conversation now!