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423: Campbell Harvey Says the Fed is WRONG on Inflation and Interest Rates

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Even really smart people are wrong on a regular basis. I see this all the time in health and longevity-related issues on my other podcast, Sapio with Buck Joffrey.

In case you are wondering…yes, I have become one of those middle-aged California guys trying to stay young at all costs. Not easy. But, I have to admit, the nerdy physician scientist type in me is having lots of fun with the science and enjoying the process of sharing it with my fellow Gen-Xers who are also fighting gravity with me.

But getting back to the point of smart people being wrong—we see this a lot in medicine. In the 1960s, a lot smart people created the food pyramid that said we should be eating a lot of carbohydrates and very little fat. That’s quite the opposite of what recent science suggests.

There was also a period in the 1990s when women were advised not to use hormone replacement because a study was thought to have suggested a link with breast cancer. A generation of doctors gave women bad advice based on what turned out to be a misinterpretation of data.

On the economic side, we don’t have to go far back to see the Federal Reserve calling inflation “transitory” just before it skyrocketed for real. How could so many smart people be so wrong?

And now, the Fed is likely delaying interest rate cuts because of higher-than-expected inflation numbers. Are they missing something here?

My guest on this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast thinks so and his reasons are compelling. I have to say, this was one of the most interesting conversations I’ve had in a long time on the Wealth Formula Podcast and I HIGHLY recommend you listen to it.

Show Notes:

07:28 How Does the Inverted Yield Curve Predict Recession?

18:53 Stirring the Economy by Misreading the Data